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Back in 2018, it took just eight words to ignite the party's annual gathering demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not exactly soaring oratory, the words were greeted with wild cheering as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

During that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against a leader he would later replace.

The Evolution in Position and Settled Debates

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 national vote. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if polling evidence indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on Europe

However, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. While Europe is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, a lid which was tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits measured in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence and Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is among those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which youths can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.

The deputy prime minister muses openly about the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, last week supported a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea would be to announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Doubts

However, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that rejoining a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with America, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. Firstly, he believes a customs pact has been made significantly more difficult because his ministers actively diverging from European rules in numerous sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced British officials that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain and are more focused on demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Strategy and Strategic Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying document claims Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of Muslim migration. It contains a single mention of the UK, placed beside a proposal that the US government will intervene in our politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from deciding that this renders America an unreliable partner, ministers reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation & The Ghost from the Past

This situation returns us to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch for the leadership but simply an attempt to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is among a group of senior ministers signaling they want to go further regarding the EU.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her stance regarding a customs pact because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Risk & A Prudent Memory

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to occupy the space where most of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be prudent of him to remember the impact just a few words had for him in 2018. Potential pathways for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should explore them personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.