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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."